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The JAMA research letter “Association of Stay-at-Home Orders with COVID-19 Hospitalizations in 4 States” fails placebo tests. Actual cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below the projections from univariate exponential time trend models in states with and without stay-at-home orders. No conclusions can be drawn about the association of stay-at-home orders with COVID-19 hospitalizations from the evidence in the letter.
Response to this article by Soumya Sen, Pinar Karaca-Mandic, and Archelle Georgiou: Reply to John Spry on Stay-at-Home Orders and COVID-19 Hospitalizations (EJW, September 2020).